Seattle had a snowstorm last weekend; my work was cancelled Monday and Tuesday. Now it's predicted that we'll get several more inches of snow tomorrow, plus more snow next Monday and Tuesday.

Although the snow last weekend was a nice break, it's hard to face several more days of being home-bound. I like having routines and the snow throws off all routines. I lose some control over my life when there's snow. Today I noticed myself thinking, "well, if it snows then I might…" or "if we don't have work tomorrow afternoon then I can reschedule…" That is, I was not accepting that there will be snow.

Certainly there's value in being skeptical of predictions about the future. For one, humans are generally pretty bad at understanding probability. I like how The Signal and the Noise frames probabilities: probabilities should be good enough to bet on. For example, if I say it's 80% likely that it'll snow, then I should be OK betting $4 that it will snow vs. $1 that it wouldn't.

Back in North Carolina, there were many winter weekends when the news talked about getting "up to three inches" of snow, and then no snow came. I remember when school was cancelled, even, due to the possibility of snow.

That said, every source I know of for weather predictions is calling for snow. Even if I can't see it, the probability is high enough as to be virtually certain that we will miss work. UW has already announced it's closing at 12:30 PM tomorrow.

Despite all that evidence, I still have a hard time believing it will snow. I need to work on acceptance: despite what I may want, there will be snow. Acceptance is a form of meditation: of noticing things as they come rather than seeing the world through a filter.

I am also reflecting on why I'm deluding myself: why is it hard for me to accept snow? And in what other ways might I build a narrative for myself that keeps me from accepting reality?